Forex Analysis: What Should You Base Your Trades On?
In any discussion of forex trading you will see discussion of the two main types of forex analysis. These are technical analysis, where trading is based on historical and mathematical factors such as price charts and indicators, and fundamental analysis, where traders pay more attention to economic factors such as financial and political news.
Which one of these will give you more successful forex trading signals? It is a difficult question and the answer is not agreed by all traders. If you look around the internet you will probably find more discussion of technical analysis but that is partly because there is more to get a grip on. Beginners are frequently advised to identify trends on price charts and then trade on the basis of those alone. This is one of the easiest ways to begin forex trading and it can be successful.
Fundamental analysis depends on knowledge and news of the constantly changing real world. This makes it more difficult to take into account if you are not in the habit of checking out the financial section of your newspaper. However, there is no doubt that ultimately it is the economic factors which cause major price movements. Advocates of fundamental analysis will argue that any evidence on charts is historical and not predictive. In other words, the charts tell you what happened 5 minutes ago but not what is coming next.
One thing is for certain. Major financial reports and other events of national or international importance can have a huge and sudden effect on currency prices. So even if you prefer the technical method of forex analysis, it is wise to keep an ear to the ground and avoid being trapped in a bad trade when the US government announces a change in interest rates and the dollar leaps or plummets by 50 pips or more.
It can be helpful to think of price movements in the forex market as having a kind of elasticity. They are constantly stretching out to certain limits and then moving back, not necessarily to their starting point but often less or more. The fundamental factors are what make the prices move but technical analysis can be used to predict how far they are likely to stretch and when they are likely to start to reverse.
So the bottom line is that the best way to profit from forex trading is to make use of the technical tools such as charts and indicators but at the same time, be aware of the fundamental factors that are the real driving force behind any trends. The successful forex trader will be comfortable with both types of forex analysis.
